Trading Disclosures & Legal Warnings

1. Not Financial Advice

Arbis is a software application developed and operated by LoomingAI LLC. LoomingAI LLC is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, commodity trading advisor, or financial planner under the laws of the United States or any other jurisdiction. Nothing contained on the arbis.trade website, within the Arbis application, or in any accompanying documentation constitutes financial, investment, legal, tax, or trading advice. Prediction market trading decisions, whether executed manually by the user or initiated autonomously via the AI Auto Trade feature, are executed directly through the user's personal Kalshi account using the user's own API credentials. The user is solely responsible for determining whether any trading strategy or transaction is appropriate for their financial situation. LoomingAI LLC does not manage capital, hold user funds, act as a custodian, or execute trades on its own servers. All transactions are carried out on the user's local hardware at their sole discretion and risk.

2. Risk of Loss — Prediction Market Trading

Prediction market contract trading involves substantial financial risk and is not suitable for every individual. Users can lose their entire principal investment. Contracts listed on the Kalshi exchange are binary in nature, meaning they resolve strictly to either $1.00 (Yes) or $0.00 (No). There is no mechanism for partial recovery or stop-loss execution once a contract has settled against the user's position. The pricing discrepancies and arbitrage "edges" identified by Arbis between CME futures probabilities (such as CME FedWatch) and Kalshi market prices are statistical indicators based on mathematical models, not guaranteed profit opportunities. Edges can narrow or completely close in the time between a scan and the actual execution of an order. Furthermore, prediction markets are subject to liquidity constraints; thin order books may result in orders failing to fill or filling at unfavorable prices (slippage). Market conditions can change unpredictably in fractions of a second due to economic announcements, sentiment shifts, or technical events.

3. AI Auto Trade Feature Disclaimer

The AI Auto Trade feature is an advanced automation tool that utilizes Google's Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite large language model to analyze real-time price feeds, order book data, and market metrics, subsequently generating autonomous trading recommendations and executing orders on Kalshi. Large language models (LLMs) are probabilistic neural networks and are not infallible. They are subject to errors, including misinterpreting market conditions, generating incorrect logical deductions, or displaying "hallucinations" (confident but entirely false statements). By enabling the AI Auto Trade feature, the user explicitly acknowledges and authorizes the Arbis software to place real-money trades on their Kalshi account autonomously, without requiring manual, per-trade confirmation or human oversight. LoomingAI LLC makes no representation, warranty, or guarantee that AI-driven trade decisions will result in profits or prevent losses. Past performance of the AI models or historical arbitrage scans is not indicative of future trading results. Users should implement strict daily loss limits and position size caps that they are prepared to lose in their entirety.

4. Kalshi Platform Compliance

Arbis operates by connecting to Kalshi's public application programming interface (API). To use Arbis, users must maintain an active, funded account with Kalshi and must independently comply with Kalshi's Terms of Service, Rulebook, and all other applicable platform guidelines. Kalshi is a designated contract market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Users are solely responsible for ensuring that their use of automated trading systems, API interfaces, and high-frequency scanning tools complies with Kalshi’s automated trading policies and CFTC regulations. LoomingAI LLC is an independent software developer and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or in partnership with Kalshi Markets LLC or any of its subsidiaries.

5. Regulatory Compliance — User Responsibility

Prediction market trading through Kalshi is legal for eligible United States residents under the regulatory oversight of the CFTC. However, the regulatory status of binary contracts, prediction markets, and automated trading software varies significantly by jurisdiction. Users are solely responsible for determining whether their access to and use of Arbis complies with all applicable local, state, national, and international laws, regulations, and tax obligations. LoomingAI LLC does not provide legal, tax, or regulatory compliance advice. Users accessing this service from outside the United States do so at their own initiative and must verify the legality of automated prediction market trading under their local legal framework before activating a subscription.

6. API Credential Security

Arbis is designed as a local-first application. The user's Kalshi API Key ID and private key (.pem file) are stored exclusively on the user's local device and are used to sign requests sent directly to Kalshi's API. LoomingAI LLC does not transmit, store, copy, or otherwise have access to the user's private keys or account credentials. Because these credentials grant full trading and execution access to the user's Kalshi account, the user bears sole and absolute responsibility for maintaining the confidentiality and security of their local configuration files. A compromised local device or leaked private key can result in unauthorized trading activity and complete loss of funds. Users must rotate their Kalshi API keys immediately if they suspect any unauthorized access or credential exposure.

7. No Guarantee of Arbitrage Edge

The primary algorithmic strategy of Arbis is to scan and identify temporary pricing inefficiencies between the implied probability of events (such as CME FedWatch interest rate projections) and the corresponding contract prices on Kalshi. While these pricing discrepancies represent statistical arbitrage opportunities, they are highly ephemeral. Edges can dissolve instantly due to automated market-making algorithms, competing trading bots, or sudden shifts in liquidity. A high-edge indicator displayed during a scan does not guarantee that a trade will be executed at that edge, nor does it guarantee a profitable outcome. Kalshi contract prices fluctuate continuously, and markets may move immediately and permanently against a user's position upon execution.

8. Limitation of Liability

To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law, LoomingAI LLC, its officers, directors, employees, owners, operators, and affiliates shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, or exemplary damages. This includes, but is not limited to, damages for loss of profits, trading losses, account liquidation, slippage, system downtime, API connectivity failures, software bugs, data corruption, or AI model decision-making errors. The Arbis software is provided strictly on an "as is" and "as available" basis, without warranties of any kind, either express or implied. Under no circumstances shall the total liability of LoomingAI LLC to any user for all claims, losses, or damages exceed the total subscription fees paid by that user to LoomingAI LLC during the current billing period.

9. Subscription and Refund Policy

Arbis is distributed on a recurring software-as-a-service (SaaS) subscription basis, with billing handled securely via Stripe. Due to the digital nature of the software and the immediate access to live scanning, real-time data feeds, and automated API execution, all sales are final. No refunds, partial refunds, or pro-rated credits will be issued once a license key has been activated. Users may cancel their subscription at any time through their account dashboard; cancellation prevents future automated renewals but does not refund the fee paid for the active billing cycle. Promotional codes, including the LAUNCH15 discount code, and referral credits apply exclusively to the user's first billing period and cannot be stacked or combined with any other offers or discounts.

10. Referral Program Terms

The Arbis referral program allows active subscribers to earn discount coupons by referring new, unique paying customers to the platform. Referral coupons are single-use, non-transferable, expire after one redemption, and apply solely to the first billing cycle of a new subscription. Any attempt to exploit the referral program, including but not limited to self-referral, account duplication, automated spamming, or fraudulent accounts, is strictly prohibited. LoomingAI LLC reserves the right, at its sole discretion, to audit referral activity, invalidate coupons, and terminate offending user accounts immediately without refund. LoomingAI LLC further reserves the right to modify, suspend, or discontinue the referral program at any time.

11. Changes to This Page

LoomingAI LLC reserves the right to modify, update, or replace these legal disclosures and risk disclaimers at any time without prior notice. The user's continued use of the Arbis website or software following the posting of any changes constitutes explicit acceptance of those updates. The date at the bottom of this page indicates when the disclosures were last revised.