ARBIS
The Market Is Changing.
Live on Kalshi · CFTC Regulated

The market is wrong.
We trade the gap.

Arbis finds real edges between CME futures probabilities and Kalshi prediction market prices, trading them automatically, 24/7.

Start for $30/month See the proof
CME FedWatch
98.6%
True probability
VS
+43.6%
edge
Kalshi Market
55¢
What traders paid

Verified live trade · KXFED-27APR-T3.50 · Jun 9, 2026

How it works
Three steps. Fully automated.

Arbis runs continuously in the background, scanning hundreds of markets every few minutes.

1
Find the gap
Arbis pulls real-time probability data from CME FedWatch, bookmaker consensus, and ESPN's live models. This is the ground truth.
2
Verify the edge
Compares ground truth against Kalshi's current market price. Only trades when the gap exceeds 7%, relying on pure math instead of guessing.
3
Execute automatically
Places the order, logs it, and sends you a Discord alert. You see every trade in real-time on the live dashboard.
Coverage
8 strategies. 254+ markets daily.

From Fed rate decisions to live NBA games, Arbis finds edges everywhere Kalshi traders misprice.

🏦
Fed Rate Arbitrage
CME FedWatch vs Kalshi threshold markets. The highest-verified edge source.
Monthly
📋
Jobless Claims
BLS consensus vs Kalshi weekly claims markets. Resolves every Thursday.
Weekly
📊
CPI & NFP
Official BLS data vs Kalshi inflation and jobs markets.
Monthly
📈
S&P 500 Daily
VIX implied move vs Kalshi daily close markets.
Daily
₿
Crypto
Binance realized volatility model vs Kalshi BTC markets.
Daily
🏀
Basketball
24 leagues including NBA, EuroLeague, ACB. Bookmaker consensus vs Kalshi.
Daily
🏈
NFL
Vegas consensus vs Kalshi game markets during NFL season.
Daily
⚡
ESPN Live
Real-time win probability vs Kalshi live markets. Scans every 90 seconds.
Live
Verified edge
Real numbers.
Real trades.

This isn't backtested. These are live positions placed on June 9, 2026, verified against CME FedWatch before execution.

Fed Apr 2027 edge found +43.6%
CME true probability 98.6%
Kalshi market price 55¢
Markets scanned live 109 Fed markets
CME FedWatch probability
98.6%. Rate stays above 3.50% in April 2027.
Kalshi market price
55¢, which is what retail traders paid.
The edge Arbis found
43.6%. The gap between reality and market price.
Expected return on this position
+$3.52 on $4.48 invested
Why trust Arbis
Built for safety first.
🏛️ CFTC Regulated platform
Kalshi is federally regulated by the CFTC. Your funds are held by Kalshi, not Arbis. We never touch your money directly.
🔒 Your keys, your account
RSA key authentication. Your private key never leaves your machine. Arbis signs API requests locally, ensuring nothing sensitive is transmitted.
🛡️ Built-in risk limits
Daily loss limits, max position sizes, kill switch, automatic suspension after consecutive losses. The bot protects your capital.
🧪 Paper trade first
Before going live, run in paper mode. The bot scans real markets and logs every signal it would have traded, so you can verify the strategy before committing real capital.
📊 Transparent methodology
The edge calculation is plain math: CME probability minus Kalshi price. There is no black box or magic, just arithmetic the market hasn't corrected yet.
💬 Discord alerts
Every trade, signal, and resolution is sent to your Discord in real-time, so you always know exactly what Arbis is doing.
Pricing
One price. Everything included.

No tiers. No usage fees. No percentage of profits taken.

Full access
$30/month
Everything you need to run a systematic prediction market arbitrage strategy from day one.
  • ✓ All 8 trading strategies
  • ✓ 254+ daily markets covered
  • ✓ Live dashboard at localhost
  • ✓ Real-time Discord alerts
  • ✓ Paper trading mode
  • ✓ Risk manager + kill switch
  • ✓ One-command setup
  • ✓ Updates included
Get Arbis →
Cancel anytime · Your Kalshi account stays yours
Questions
Common questions.
Is this gambling?
No. Gambling is placing bets without a mathematical edge. Arbis only trades when a verified probability gap exists between CME futures (the most liquid rate market in the world) and Kalshi's retail pricing. Every trade has positive expected value before it's placed.
Can I lose money?
Yes. Even high-probability trades lose sometimes. Arbis has built-in daily loss limits, position size caps, and automatic suspension rules to protect your capital. Long-shot Pool B positions are capped at 10% of your balance.
How much do I need to start?
Kalshi has no minimum deposit. Arbis works with any balance, sizing positions proportionally. Larger capital produces larger dollar returns. The edge percentage stays identical regardless of how much you invest.
Does this work on Mac/Linux?
Yes. The bot is Python and runs on any OS. Windows, Mac, and Linux are all supported.
Do I need to keep my computer on?
For the bot to trade, yes. Cloud deployment instructions are included in the documentation.
How do I know Arbis is making good trades?
Every trade is logged with the exact edge calculation, data source, and CME probability used. The live dashboard shows your full trade history, win rate, and P&L. Nothing is hidden.